Angels Nation 2012 Season Preview

So, the 2012 Season kicked off last night in Japan, as the Mariners topped to the A's, 3-1 in extra innings.  While that game will likely have little impact on the rest of the season, it's incredibly significant in that it starts off the 2012 season.  A season which many Angels fans are hoping is our return to not only the postseason, but to the World Series and beyond.  I'll take a look at each of the other 5 divisions in baseball before turning it around to look at our Angels, and our division foes.  Also, picks for awards and postseason championships.

NL West
Projected Standings:

1st -San Francisco - 94-68
Colorado - 85-77
Arizona - 84-78
Los Angeles - 80-82
San Diego - 70-92

Divisional Recap:
San Francisco, while still not having much in the way of offense, is getting back their star catcher in Buster Posey, and that young rotation is only getting better. This is a very winnable division (as Arizona showed last year), and the Giants are primed to make it back to the postseason.  The Dodgers could improve now that they have been sold to the group headed by Magic Johnson, but it might take them some time to turn dollars into wins.  Colorado could compete for a playoff spot, but needs more pitching to have a chance.

NL Central
Projected Standings:

2nd - Milwaukee - 93-69
St. Louis - 84-78
Cincinnati - 82-80
Chicago - 81-81
Pittsburgh - 79-83
Houston - 59-103

Divisional Recap:
Houston will go days on days without wins, and the rest of the division is pretty close, but in the end, I think the Brewers have the pitching (both in the rotation and the bullpen) to pull away in September.  The Cardinals or Reds could make a push for that 2nd Wild Card spot, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

NL East
Projected Standings:

3rd - Philadelphia - 90-72
4th - Miami - 88-74
5th - Washington - 87-75
Atlanta - 79-83
New York - 65-97

Divisional Recap:
Miami and Washington went out and got a lot better in the offseason, while Philadelphia stood their ground, and while they still might have the best 1-2-3 punch in all of baseball in that rotation, they are going to lose Utley and Ryan Howard for big chunks of time due to injuries.  Can Jim Thome, Placido Polanco and Jimmy Rollins really carry that offense?  Atlanta takes a step back after their epic collapse at the end of the 2011 season, and the Mets continue to be the Mets.

AL Central
Projected Standings:

3rd - Detroit - 95-67
Cleveland - 83-79
Minnesota - 78-84
Kansas City - 75-87
Chicago - 70-92

Divisional Recap:
Detroit looks like the clear winner in this division, which might be the worst in baseball if Cleveland and Kansas City take a step back from their 2011 campaigns.  I still don't trust the lineup around Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera, nor the rotation after Justin Verlander.  If Morneau and Mauer bounce back in Minnesota, they have the supporting pieces to make a decent run, but that is a big "if".  Chicago is going to be bad.  They lost their manager and their ace to Miami, and everyone else just got a year older, on an already old team.

AL East
Projected Standings:

1st - New York - 101-61
4th - Tampa Bay - 95-67
5th - Toronto - 90-72
Boston - 81-81
Baltimore - 70-92

Divisional Recap:
I think after the collapse last year, coupled with Bobby Valentine's antics and a team that is just asking for that one injury to either Ellsbury or Gonzalez to completely cripple their season, Boston is not ready to make the jump back into the postseason.  The Yankees had the offense last year, but no one in that rotation wanted to step up behind CC Sabathia.  Now they have an improved offense, and a bolstered Roation, which includes sophomore studs Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova, as well as former Dodger Hiroki Kuroda.  They also have Raul Ibanez playing at DH, who is going to LOVE the short porch and jet stream out to right field.  Tampa Bay might have the best overall pitching staff in all of baseball behind the Angels, and if their hitting can keep things going (despite not really having any stars outside of Longoria), they should lock up the first wild card spot pretty easily, unless Longoria goes down, which opens up things for Boston or Texas.  The Blue Jays are much better this year, and if they can find a pitcher at the trade deadline to compliment Ricky Romero, they might be the scariest team in baseball come Mid-August.  The Orioles are going to be better, but under the weight of being in the best division in baseball, they will struggle all year long once again.

AL West 
Projected Standings

2nd - Angels - 100-62
Texas - 88-74
Seattle - 70-92
Oakland - 58-104

Oakland - Yes, this is the worst team in baseball.  After watching them over the last month in spring training, and seeing their game against another terrible team last night, this is just a bad baseball club.  They have little to no offense to speak of (outside of Jemile Weeks and Cuban import Cespedes), and there isn't much going on in the rotation after Brendan McCarthy (especially with Dallas Braden out with an injury until at least May).  This should be an easy victory every time out for the Halos, and I'll have to rename my favorite segment "I Wish We Could Play Oakland All Year Long".  If this club can find something to rally behind (like McCarthy or Cespedes), a best case scenario would be 3rd place ahead of Seattle, but Seattle has better young hitters and maybe the best pitcher in baseball.  The Athletics have Coco Crisp and Bartolo Colon.

Seattle - This is a team on the rise, granted, there wont be anywhere for them to go with Anaheim and Texas leaps and bounds ahead of them in the division, but they will be fun to watch all season long.  Once they begin to weed out some of the crap (Figgins, Brendan Ryan, etc) and plug in young, exciting players, they could be the Angels biggest competition for the next decade of Pujols.  Until then, they still have King Felix, who is probably the best pitcher in baseball, and Ichiro, who with four hits last night, looks like he back to the same old Ichiro.  They are a little shaky in the rotation behind Felix, but they are good enough to finish within 10 games of .500.

Texas - Lets see, they lost their Ace to their biggest rival, and their rotation of constantly injured sluggers are all a year older and a few years slower (thanks to those injuries).  But they are still apparently the toast of the AL West, according to many "experts".  To me, this team is relying on too many "maybes" and "ifs".  Yu Darvish will probably start out well, but he is set up for failure.  Getting used to that Mid-Summer Texas heat is going to be brutal after a lifetime in temperate Japan.  Neftali Feliz, their former closer, is being moved into the rotation.  This didn't work for someone like Joba Chamerblain (who just went out for the season in a freak trampoline accident), and historically hasn't worked well for anyone.  Speaking of which, the oft-injured Joe Nathan is taking over for Feliz in the closer role.  Can he stay healthy for a full season?  Next "if": can the lineup stay together?  Odds are not good.  Cruz, Kinsler, Hamilton and Andrus are all injury prone, and what happens if they all go down around the same time?  Then its Mid-Summer and Darvish has fallen off the deep end, and Feliz can't keep his stamina up, forcing Ron Washington to go to the bullpen earlier than he'd like to?  Also, lets face it, the rotation behind Feliz and Darvish just isn't very good.  It's a serviceable Major League Rotation, but this "AL Powerhouse" club isn't going to win 100 games with Colby Lewis as the 3rd starter.

Angels - The Angels got better EVERYWHERE in the offseason, even where they didn't need it.  The pitching staff, which had the best ERA in the AL last year, added C.J. Wilson, Jason Isringhausen and LaTroy Hawkins.  Three former all-stars.  Isringhausen and Hawkins are going to bring depth and experience to an already solid bullpen featuring Walden, Downs, Takahashi and Jepsen.  They will help groom the youngsters into better big league bullpen arms, as well as suck up innings if Wilson, Santana or Haren have an off night.  The Angels starting rotation was solid in 2011, even if Chatwood was inconsistent, and Jerome Williams didn't come on till late.  Swap out Chatwood with Rangers ace C.J. Wilson and give Jerome Williams a full season, and they Angels will be tough to score runs on in ANY game.

As if that wasn't enough, they went ahead and added the best hitter in baseball (possibly ever), got a catcher who can actually get on base and keep rallies alive, oh and are getting back an all-star caliber DH in Kendrys Morales.  Pujols brings consistency to an inconsistent lineup, and there isn't anything else I can say about his talent that I or someone else hasn't already said 100 times.  He will make everyone around him better.  Kendrick, Morales and Hunter are going to see better pitches to hit, and will likely have more guys on when they get to back.  Chris Ianetta will bring some consistency to the plate from the catchers position.  While he is no Mike Napoli (I still think that move single-handedly got Tony Reagins fired), he will be a huge improvement over Jeff Mathis and Bobby Wilson.  Throw in Vernon Wells, who can only get better this season (and will now have much less stress with Pujols and Morales in that lineup) hitting 6th or 7th, and this is, top to bottom, one of the most complete lineups in all of baseball.  Only the Yankees and Red Sox might be more talented 1 through 9.  Coming off the bench, we have Bobby Abreu (although I doubt that will last long), either Alberto Callaspo or Mark Trumbo, Hank Conger/Bobby Wilson and Macier Izturis.  That is a bench that any manager would love to have.

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card Round:
Washington Nationals over Miami Marlins
Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays

League Division Series:
San Francisco Giants over Washington Nationals
Milwaukee Brewers over Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Angels over Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers

League Championship Series:
San Francisco Giants over Milwaukee Brewers, 4-2
Los Angeles Angels over New York Yankees, 4-1

World Series:
Los Angeles Angels over San Francisco Giants, 4-3 (AL Wins All-Star Game)

Award Predictions


MVP:
NL - Ryan Zimmerman
AL - Robinson Cano

Cy Young:
NL - Tim Lincecum
AL - Jered Weaver

Rookie of the Year:
NL - Tyler Skaggs
AL - Matt Moore

Manager of the Year:
NL - Ron Roenicke
AL - Joe Maddon

Misc. Angels Awards:
Silver Slugger:
1B - Albert Pujols
DH - Kendrys Morales

Golden Glove:
1B - Albert Pujols
SS - Erick Aybar
OF - Peter Bourjos

The Really Big 2011 Angels Preview

Well, just about 24 hours till the Angels open the season in Kansas City against the Royals, and that means its about time for an in depth season preview. Lets start out by looking at the Losses the Angels Roster took over the offseason:

Mike Napoli (Traded to Toronto) - Total dick move by the Blue Jays to trade him back into our division, but his power from the Catcher's position will be missed, but I think we can get by. If Jeff Mathis can show a solid improvement, we should be ok. If not, Hank Conger is waiting in the wings.

Juan Rivera (Traded to Toronto) - Oh no, an average hitting and poor fielding outfielder on a team packed with outfield depth, what ever will we do?!?

Hideki Matsui (Signed with Oakland) - Oh no, an average hitting and poor fielding outfielder on a team packed with outfield depth, what ever will we do?!? I know people are thinking he is going to help Oakland take back the division this year, but did those people watch the Angels play at all last year? If anything, making sure he played every game was more of a hindrance to the Angels. Have fun Oakland.

Ryan Budde (Signed with Toronto) - He went from a situation where he will never play to another situation where he will never play. That's a shame, he is a good guy. Hopefully it works out for him somewhere.

Kevin Frandsen (Signed with San Diego) - Its a shame to see him go, especially now with Morales' uncertainty, he was a good utility infielder and he will be missed.

Robb Quinlan (Released) - It will be weird to know that he won't be waiting in the wings in Salt Lake, hoping for someone to get hurt so he can get called up... but at the same time, he hasn't really done anything for the team since what, 2006?

Scot Shields (Retired) - Its a shame to see him go, but he hasn't really been the same pitcher since 2007, but as that last link to the 2002 team, it was a sad day when he retired.

Ron Roenicke (Hired as Manager of the Milwaukee Brewers) - One of my favorite all-time bench coaches for the Angels, its really good to see him get a shot at managing a big league club, especially one with such promise like the Brewers. He will probably be the toughest guy to replace on the whole list.

Now, in a natural progression, we look at the additions the Angels made for 2011:

Vernon Wells (Acquired in Trade from Toronto) - Easily our biggest acquisition in the offseason, Wells is essentially a Torii Hunter who hits for a bit more power and a bit less average. If he can perform to the level he achieved last year, he will be a valuable asset for the middle of our lineup. If not, well, there is no way he could be as bad as Steve Finley.

Scott Downs (Free Agent Signing) - With such uncertainty in our Closer role, Downs will be a good addition to the team, that is, if he cant stop injuring himself while playing with his kids. Also, looking a lot less like The Joker will help.

Hisanori Takahashi (Free Agent Signing) - I'm normally wary of anyone coming to our team from the Mets, but this lefty is going to bring a solidity to the long relief role that we lost when we let Darren Oliver go to Texas. He can also come in for the spot start, in case Scott Kazmir turns out to be the bust we all know he is going to be.

Rob Picciolo (Former Infield Instructor) - Our new bench coach has big shoes to fill, but will he be the right man for the job? I suppose only time will tell how Rob fits in as Mike Scioscia's new right hand man.

Overall, we lost a bit more talent than we gained, or so it would seem on paper, but I still firmly believe the Angels will finish 2011 above .500. A full season of Dan Haren, and at least 4 Months of Kendrys Morales should help remedy the loss in talent. Lets grade the team on a few attributes.

Defense:

Infield: Without Morales, this group suffers a bit. Morales is a damn fine defensive first basemen, and really solidifies this group. Without him, you have Mark Trumbo, Brandon Wood and Howie Kendrick platooning over there. Howie brings some solidity to Second, and as much as I don't like him, Erick Aybar will likely be our everyday starter at Shortstop. Third Base is another question mark, as Macier Izturis, Alberto Callaspo, and at least for a short time, Brandon Wood look to get starts at the hot corner. This is a solid infield up the middle, but with all the questions on the corners, it brings down the grade a bit. C+

Outfield: We now have the outfield depth that some teams dream of. Our starting 3 of Wells, Bourjos and Hunter (left to right) might be the best in baseball, at least defensively. Take into consideration that we have solid backups in Bobby Abreu, Reggie Willits and Chris Pettit. This is easily our safest bet this season. A

Catcher: We all know what Jeff Mathis brings to the table defensively at catcher, but if his bat continues to suffer, a more offensive minded Hank Conger may need to be the answer behind the plate. B

Offense:

Contact: Overall, this isn't a very patient team. Eric Aybar will swing at anything, and the rest of the team will swing at almost everything. Expect even fewer walks than last year for this club, and more strikeouts. C-

Speed: Peter Bourjos might be the fastest player in the league, and it doesn't get much worse from there. The only guy in the starting lineup who won't steal 10 bases this year is Jeff Mathis, and its not like he is Molina-Brother-Slow at all. If anything, this team will need to revisit its roots and play a ton of small-ball this season if they want to remain competitive. A+

Power: Again, another lacking aspect of our offense last year was Power. Napoli led the team with 26 Home Runs, and he is now in Texas. Vernon Wells is probably good for 25, Hunter is good for another 20, but unless Trumbo really gets off to a hot start, or Morales comes back sooner than I expect, Power is going to be another troublesome area for our club. C

Pitching:

Starters: If speed is our strongest asset, our starting rotation is right behind. Even with the huge question marks at the back of the rotation (will Pineiro ever get healthy? Is Kazmir really going to be our 5th Starter come May 1st?), this is still one of the best rotations in the American League. Led by a pair of Aces in Dan Haren and Jered Weaver. These two are both good enough to make the All-Star Team and contend for Cy Young Awards for years to come. We may be entering our last couple seasons with Weaver, so the time to win might be now. Ervin Santana in the 3 slot is one of the best 3rd Pitchers in all of baseball, that is, if he can ditch the "I only pitch well in even-numbered years" jinx. A

Bullpen: Our Bullpen overall is very strong. A couple of lefties help fix a huge problem we had last year, and Takahashi is a great guy to have at your disposal. He can start, mop up, or even close for you. Scott Downs could be our Closer come May, but for now he is a great set-up guy for Rodney (when he gets healthy, that is). Jordan Walden might be the one guy everyone is talking about though. This flame-throwing righty seems to be the heir-apparent to Rodney in the pen, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is our Closer come the All-Star Break. B+

Closer: Fernando Rodney might have the hottest seat in all of baseball. If he doesn't come out of the gates perfect, he could lose his job in a matter of weeks. I know Scioscia likes to stick with his guys, but anyone can tell that he is at wits end with Rodney. I'd be shocked if he is still in an Angel uniform come August 1st. C-

So, now that we have gone over who is gone, who is new, and what everyone looks like now. Seems like a proper time to go over predictions. Lets do this on a month by month basis.

April: 17-10
The Angels start out with a favorable schedule in Kansas City and Tampa to face the depleted Rays. Then a few easy series at home against the Blue Jays and Indians before heading back out on the road to face Chicago and Texas. The month wraps up nicely after a tough 4-game series against Boston in Anaheim.

May: 17-13
May is going to be a tough month, as the Angels only get ONE off day on May 12th. Combine that with a four-game series in Boston and another series in Texas, its going to be a rough month, and 17 wins might be kind.

June: 15-10
Another tough month in June, as it see the Angels playing the Yankees in Anaheim, then traveling to New York to play the Mets before coming back to California to play the Dodgers in LA. They don't play on any Thursday that month, its a bit strange.

July: 13-13
The toughest part of July is a 10 game road trip at the end of the month that takes the Halos through Baltimore, Cleveland and Detroit.

August: 14-13
Trips to New York (to play the Yankees) and Toronto start out an already tough month that sees a third trip to Texas towards the end of August. This might be their first losing month of the season.

September: 14-12
Another trip through the tougher AL opponents as the Angels play the Twins, Yankees and Orioles (yes, I'm sold on Baltimore this year), and the season ends with a vital 3-game set against the Rangers in Anaheim.

Overall: 90-72
While I don't think 90 wins is going to be enough to top the Rangers in the division, it could be enough to steal a Wild Card spot from the Yankees or Twins. The Angels should play above .500 for the entire season, and if they don't, while I won't be surprised, I will be disappointed. They are still a top 10 team in the league, and they should be able to play like one, even if no one thinks they can.

Final Division Standings predictions:
AL West:
Texas Rangers - 92-70
LA Angels - 90-72
Oakland A's - 80-82
Seattle Mariners - 69-73

AL Central:
Chicago White Sox - 95-67
Minnesota Twins - 91-71
Detroit Tigers - 85-77
Cleveland Indians - 78-84
Kansas City Royals - 62-100

AL East:
Boston Red Sox - 101-61
New York Yankees - 91-71
Baltimore Orioles - 88-74
Toronto Blue Jays - 82-80
Tampa Bay Rays - 79-83

NL West:
Colorado Rockies - 90-72
San Francisco Giants - 89-73
Los Angeles Dodgers - 83-79
San Diego Padres - 80-82
Arizona Diamondbacks - 78-84

NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers - 89-73
Cincinnati Reds - 85-77
St. Louis Cardinals - 85-77
Houston Astros - 81-81
Chicago Cubs - 73-89
Pittsburgh Pirates - 59-103

NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies - 99-63
Atlanta Braves - 95-67
Washington Nationals - 83-79
Florida Marlins - 76-86
New York Mets - 66-96

Wild Card Playoff: Yankees defeat Twins
ALDS: Red Sox defeat Rangers, 3-2; White Sox defeat Yankees, 3-1
NLDS: Phillies defeat Brewers, 3-0; Braves defeat Rockies, 3-2
ALCS: Boston Red Sox defeat Chicago White Sox, 4-1
NLCS: Philadelphia Phillies defeat Atlanta Braves, 4-2
World Series: Philadelphia Phillies defeat Boston Red Sox, 4-3

Award Winners:
AL MVP - Adrian Gonzalez (Boston Red Sox)
NL MVP - Prince Fielder (Milwaukee Brewers)
AL Cy Young - Jon Lester (Boston Red Sox)
NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay (Philadelphia Phillies)
AL Rookie of the Year - Kyle Drabek (Toronto Blue Jays)
NL Rookie of the Year - Freddie Freeman (Atlanta Braves)
AL Coach of the Year - Buck Showalter (Baltimore Orioles)
NL Coach of the Year - Ron Roenicke (Milwaukee Brewers)

So there you have it, my obligatory and random 2011 predictions for all of baseball. If I get 40% of these right, someone owes me a coke. Regardless of what happens, though, this is shaping up to be one of the best seasons in recent memory for both the Angels and the rest of the league. I can't wait to watch it, discuss it and write about it!